Thought exercise re: had we not drafted a QB last year

[Kodiak.]

I don't think it takes 4 years to figure out a QB in the NFL. If you have to sit him for a year or two it's one thing, but for a guy who had a lot of college experience coming in, we're going to have a pretty good read by the end of this year.

That's assuming he has a good OC. Hard to judge a guy running a conservative, JV offense focused on TOP.

Plus, some guys do have a bit of a sophomore slump. That's why I think the consensus will end up "let's see how he does in Yr3 with an actual NFL OC".

I realize that implies an assumption that an actual, competent OC still wants to work with Tomlin.

[bradshaw2ben]

No way, no excuses. Ben Had Whisenhunt and Cowher, not exactly modern offense-minded. Same with Buffalo and Josh Allen, actually.

We may not see the best he has to offer, but I don't think we're going to be... 'if only we could see one more year, we'll know for sure'

[Jizz Mop]

No way, no excuses. Ben Had Whisenhunt and Cowher, not exactly modern offense-minded. Same with Buffalo and Josh Allen, actually.

We may not see the best he has to offer, but I don't think we're going to be... 'if only we could see one more year, we'll know for sure'

This is fact:

Ben’s Oline and Steeler team was light years better than Pickett’s ‘22 Oline and overall team.

You can’t compare the two when the variables are so wildly different.

Haterz gonna hate.

[Kodiak.]

This is fact:

Ben’s Oline and Steeler team was light years better than Pickett’s ‘22 Oline and overall team.

Wut?!?

Most people wanted to completely blow that team up after 2003. Ben's OL was pretty awful early in his career. That first group could run block their asses off, but they sucked at pass pro.

[Kodiak.]

No way, no excuses. Ben Had Whisenhunt and Cowher, not exactly modern offense-minded. Same with Buffalo and Josh Allen, actually.

I'm not going to try to compare Kenny with one of the greatest to ever play the position.

OK, we might know if Kenny could be, or is not, a future HOFer after this year. But everything else in between is unlikely to be conclusive.

You're also completely dismissing how Ben, despite being a company man, was already established before Tomlin became HC. Tomlin, IMO, is far more conservative and risk averse than Cowher ever pretended to be.

My gawd just imagine young Ben trying to play in this Tomlada offense. He either settles into playing like Pennington, or he plays his way into the doghouse. He would have been mediocre trying to play within the constraints of that shitty system, and would have been neutered or benched trying to go off script. Hell, just look at his last season when he basically had to sell his soul to play one more year.

[Jizz Mop]

This is fact:

Ben’s Oline and Steeler team was light years better than Pickett’s ‘22 Oline and overall team.

Wut?!?

Most people wanted to completely blow that team up after 2003. Ben's OL was pretty awful early in his career. That first group could run block their asses off, but they sucked at pass pro.

Hartings, Faneca and Marvel Smith

Other two are scrubs

Is Cole better than Hartings?

Dotson or Daniels better than Faneca?

Either of Moore or Chuks better than Smith?

What are you smoking

[K_C_]

No way, no excuses. Ben Had Whisenhunt and Cowher, not exactly modern offense-minded. Same with Buffalo and Josh Allen, actually.

We may not see the best he has to offer, but I don't think we're going to be... 'if only we could see one more year, we'll know for sure'

This is fact:

Ben’s Oline and Steeler team was light years better than Pickett’s ‘22 Oline and overall team.

You can’t compare the two when the variables are so wildly different.

Haterz gonna hate.

It’s pointless to even bring up Roethlisberger joined a LOADED team when he was drafted and to his credit, made that team a lot better immediately.

Pickett didn’t come into anywhere near as good a situation but he’s gonna be around awhile. Folks already have decided we might be looking to draft a QB early in April 2024, because Kenny could very well Zach Wilson himself out of Pittsburgh.

That’s message boards for ya.

[bradshaw2ben]

Look, I don't expect--nor should anyone-- that Pickett is gonna show Ben-level play.

What I'm saying is: if he can't transcend the coaching and make the surrounding talent better by the time we're an offseason from year 3, it may not be written in stone, but it's going to be pretty clear what kind of chance he has of getting to elite play and what it will take to get him there.

He's going to have an OL this year that rivals the 2004 team. Fancea was an unparalleled run blocker on the move but he was a pass pro sieve at times. He'll have his Marvel Smith in this draft and the guards/interior are on pace to be excellent.

Regardless, he has to show that he's got greatness in him by NFL standards. Doesn't need to be (and won't be) perfect, just more than adequate.

[K_C_]

Look, I don't expect--nor should anyone-- that Pickett is gonna show Ben-level play.

What I'm saying is: if he can't transcend the coaching and make the surrounding talent better by the time we're an offseason from year 3, it may not be written in stone, but it's going to be pretty clear what kind of chance he has of getting to elite play and what it will take to get him there.

He's going to have an OL this year that rivals the 2004 team. Fancea was an unparalleled run blocker on the move but he was a pass pro sieve at times. He'll have his Marvel Smith in this draft and the guards/interior are on pace to be excellent.

Regardless, he has to show that he's got greatness in him by NFL standards. Doesn't need to be (and won't be) perfect, just more than adequate.

There''s several areas where we'll disagree and probably always will disagree. Roethlisberger joined a team primed and ready to contend for a Super Bowl. Hell, Cowher's teams were almost always primed and ready to contend for Super Bowls. Freaking Kordell Stewart finished 3rd in MVP voting and had the Steelers favored to beat Denver and go to the Super Bowl. Neil Fucking O'Donnell actually QB'd the Steelers to the Super Bowl. All Bill Cowher was really ever missing was a QB. He happened to strike gold with Roethlisberger but early in his career, Ben played on a loaded teams, before developing into the Hall of Famer we all know him as today.

Kenny Pickett is in a very different situation. No, he won't be getting a Marvel Smith this year. Smith was already with the Steelers for what, 5 years before Ben came on board? Ben walked into an offensive line filled with studs. Even if we add Darnell Wright at LT this year, the dude is going to struggle and we have to be prepared for that. ALL rookies struggle and LT is the second most difficult position to play in the NFL. Could Wright be an upgrade to a 3rd year Dan Moore? Most certainly but that isn't a given. Not by a long shot.

As for Kenny showing Ben level play, I don't know of any QB in today's game that plays the game like Roethlisberger, except maybe Josh Allen and he actually looks to be regressing to me. Dude throws waaaaaaaay too many dumbass picks. The guy I hope Kenny emulates is the guy I believe he's most similar too and that guy also happens to be the fella who surpassed Josh Allen as the second best QB in the AFC. Joe Burrow.

I'd love to look back at my old posts because there were some folks here who argued with me heartily during Burrow's rookie year that he wasn't going to be anything special. That ring a bell to anybody? This was before Burrow got his knee shredded. I found the take on Burrow (during his rookie year) very similar to what was said about Pickett during his rookie year and again, I think their games are comparable.

Both are tough, hard nosed guys who can beat you several ways. Both can throw the ball well but use their legs to make key plays and to pick up big first downs. Burrow and Pickett have very similar styles and Burrow had a lot of praise for Kenny last season.

The difference between the two is that Burrow has already accomplished becoming a star QB AND, most importantly, Burrow has 2 superstar level WR's. Ol' Joe sure looked a lot different before Ja'Marr Chase showed up on the scene, didn't he?

So no, I don't expect Kenny will ever show a level of greatness that Ben achieved, but if we ever do want Kenny to compete with the best QB's in the business, they better get rid of fuck ups like Diontae Johnson and find Kenny a few more ballers.

[bradshaw2ben]

6-10, kids. 6-10 to 15-1.

[tbsteel]

6-10, kids. 6-10 to 15-1.

And even starting 2004, in week 1 we barely eeked out an ugly OT win against a bad Raiders team (the infamous 5 rushes for 1 yard and 3 TDs game for Bettis) and were down 20-0 halfway through the third quarter against the Ravens by the time Ben came in.

That team was going to be in that 7-9 win purgatory with Maddox that year but Big Ben turned that team into 14 straight wins and the rest was history.

If Kenny makes a huge leap and leads this team to 12+ wins and turns into a huge playmaker I will be absolutely shocked.

[Scunge]

This is fact:

Ben’s Oline and Steeler team was light years better than Pickett’s ‘22 Oline and overall team.

Wut?!?

Most people wanted to completely blow that team up after 2003. Ben's OL was pretty awful early in his career. That first group could run block their asses off, but they sucked at pass pro.

I disagree that the O-line was bad at pass protection. Ben had 30 sacks in 2004 and only 23 sacks in 2005. But the thing that people must remember is that Ben was a Mad Bomber in those first two seasons. He was taking deeper drops, hanging on to the ball longer, and throwing the ball much farther down the field. I don't care who your O-line is, that will result in sacks.

In 2004 Plaxico Burress averaged 19.9 yards per catch, Hines Ward in 2005 had his best 14.1 yards per catch as a starter. Even guys like Randle El and Cedric Wilson were averaging 16, 17 yards per catch.

Ben those first two years was averaging close to 9 yards per attempt (8.9) and had 13.4 yards per completion in 2004 and 14.2 yards per completion in 2005.

Yes, the Steelers ran first and then had a deep passing game key off of it.

I think there were 4 O-line groups that played with Ben. There was that initial group that was very good, a veteran group but was close to the end of their time together.
2004-2006 This group had Marvell Smith, Alan Faneca, Jeff Hartings, Kendall Simmons and Max Starks. After that 2006 season, Hartings was gone and then after the 2007 season Faneca would leave for the JETS.

That 2007-2009 was one of transition, but instead of replacing former Pro Bowlers like Faneca and Hartings with high round draft picks, we instead made a huge misfire with Sean Mahan, remember him? And then settled with Justin Hartwig. You had players like Chris Kemoeatu and Trai Essex and Willie Colon. This was a time period when Ben would have 40-50 sacks.

That 3rd group was constructed from 2010-2012, with Ramon Foster coming as an UDFA in 2009. You had a first round pick spent on Pouncey, in 2011 you had a 2nd spent on Gilbert, in 2012 you had a 1st, 2nd and 7th spent on DeCastro, Adams and Beachum. Adams was a bust but those other 5 players formed a great O-line that played a long time together.

Sure there were hiccups along the way, remember when Pouncey missed a season and Fernando Velasco had to start? Or when Gilbert missed his second season?

This 3rd group had minor tweaks along the way, like Gilbert giving way to Chris Hubbard who gave way to Matt Feiler, etc, Beachum out Big Al in,

Then that 4th and final group was the one that came about because that O-line got old and dropped off a cliff, there were retirements, etc. Pouncey, Foster, DeCastro, Big Al all gone within a span of two years. And the replacements were not high pedigree or even mid tier free agents.

Starting last year with Mason Cole and James Daniels and then this year with the signing of Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig, it gives off a 2010-2012 vibe. They are not messing around, they are building an O-line and giving it the resources to do so, and who knows maybe they draft an OT in round 1 like Wright.

I am not opposed to the Steelers doubling down and going OT and C, spending a first and second round pick. I think that there are 4 very good 2nd round centers that would look fine in the black and gold and with Cole still having two years left on his contract, they could develop them slowly and make for a smooth transition.

[SteelerDayTrader]

I see the top end for Kenny as possibly Phil Simms. MAYBE Drew Brees (?)

Unfortunately I don’t think a C2 for Kenny is a wait and see how he does thing at this point. I think it’s pretty much a done deal he gets a C2. I just don’t see this team bottoming out and given that I think a C2 is just about guaranteed

If I was calling the shots for the Steelers and wanted to win a Lombardi with Kenny I would do 2 things very differently than what the Steelers are likely to do

1) Id have a much stronger and diverse RB unit

2) Id run a 2 TE offense

[ToddHaleysNineIron]

6-10, kids. 6-10 to 15-1.

And even starting 2004, in week 1 we barely eeked out an ugly OT win against a bad Raiders team (the infamous 5 rushes for 1 yard and 3 TDs game for Bettis) and were down 20-0 halfway through the third quarter against the Ravens by the time Ben came in.

That team was going to be in that 7-9 win purgatory with Maddox that year but Big Ben turned that team into 14 straight wins and the rest was history.

If Kenny makes a huge leap and leads this team to 12+ wins and turns into a huge playmaker I will be absolutely shocked.

Ahh yes, the "game manager" Ben years.
Looking at the box scores https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 4/gamelog/

It looks like one game cracked 300 yards passing (against the giants)
Only a handful cracked 200.

What I remember from that year is that they didn't let Ben do much... but he made plays that won games... not unlike what I saw from Pickett last year during the second half. Nobody is going to compare to Ben's career - we all know that, but I think Pickett showed a hell of a lot more than most rookies do, and he showed me the things I wanted to see from a rookie last year in that second half that tells me he's got something that you can really win with.

He's going to have a better line and run game this year, it's a matter of whether he gets some playcalls downfield... Regardless of whether Ben had bad OC's, I don't think I ever heard guys on the field yelling "ITS THE SAME DAMN PLAY", or former players talking about a "Saturday" playbook or anything like that during his time.

[K_C_]

6-10, kids. 6-10 to 15-1.

The 2002 team that went 10-5-1 with Tommy Freaking Maddox at QB had 3 All Pro players and 4 total Pro Bowlers.

Then shit went south in a hurry.

6-10 because the XFL retread that led the team to a 10-5-1 record the previous year and a playoff win came back down to earth. Porter got shot in the ass and played like it for good portion of the games he played in. Marvel Smith missed most of that year with a neck and Kendall Simmons was diagnosed with diabetes and his season was ruined. Faneca had to be moved to tackle.

Mike Mularkey called 38 pass plays in a blizzard. Bettis was awful and got beaten out by Amos Zereoue, who proceeded to be even shittier than Bettis.

Troy Polamalu didn’t play well as a rookie and Ike Taylor was struggling to figure things out too in his first season.

2003 was a little like 2022. The best defensive player in the NFL missed half the season and took another 3 games to start looking like his old self. We couldn’t run the ball at all for a good portion of the year because Najee Harris could barely walk. We were breaking in a rookie QB, who clearly wasn’t ready to play early but had to because Mitch Trubisky sucked cock. Our best WR was a rookie.

The list goes on and on. Sometimes football seasons go your way and other times, nearly everything goes wrong. They never righted the ship in 2003, but somehow they found a way to do that in 2022.