Thought exercise re: had we not drafted a QB last year

[tbsteel]

Was just thinking back about the big debate last year about whether to draft a QB then or to wait until this year to draft a QB.

For this exercise, we drafted Tyler Linderbaum at #20 last year and no QB. Mitch Trubisky started every game last year. The Steelers finished 7-10 and end up with the 12th draft pick this year based on their SOS. We know the Steelers were never going to bottom out.

What would the plan for grabbing a QB have been and who would you have targeted? A trade up for Young or Stroud seems impossible. And given the QB needy teams in front of us, a significant trade up seems either unlikely or would come at a huge cost. For example, San Fran moving up from #12 to #3 to draft Trey Lance cost three first round picks total (21, 22, and 23) and and additional third.

For this exercise, let's say the draft goes:

1. Panthers - Bryce Young
2. Colts (trade up) - Will Levis
3. Cardinals - Will Anderon
4. Texans - Tyree Wilson
5. Raiders (trade up) - C.J. Stroud

The Steelers are sitting at 12. What do you realistically do from here?

[Mick]

I was just about to ask whether the steelers should consider Stroud at 17 this year when he falls.

[Steelperch]

Trade down to late 1 and get a 1 for next year. Take BPA and position to move up for a QB in 2024.

[Jizz Mop]

Jizz Mop spoiler alert

We drafted a QB in Rd 1 last year

He’s been polarizing here

Story at 11

[bradshaw2ben]

Trade down to late 1 and get a 1 for next year. Take BPA and position to move up for a QB in 2024.

This

[franco32]

I don't like any of the QBs projected to go in the first round this draft. I agree it's better to stock up for next year.

You trade up for guys like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert who have immense outlier physical tools. (Big Ben would have been another). But you do not trade up this year.

[tbsteel]

Trade down to late 1 and get a 1 for next year. Take BPA and position to move up for a QB in 2024.

This

I went back and forth last year from wanting to trade down and pick up extra draft ammo for trading up to get a QB in the current '23 draft vs. taking the QB last year.

Gun to my head, Anthony Richardson would be an interesting guy to target this year. But yeah, otherwise I'd be all about trading out to get an extra first and ammo for next year while working to try and solidify the roster.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Fair point TB


I guess for me much of it came down to
the Steelers slamming the door on Ben, having a clueless and middling approach with the QB unit after Ben, and drafting a flawed less than stunning QB in Pickett

The Steelers haven’t had a great draft in a long time and part of me wishes they let the bottom fall out with Rudolph for a few years restock the rest of the team and wait for their guy at QB

[tbsteel]

Fair point TB


I guess for me much of it came down to
the Steelers slamming the door on Ben, having a clueless and middling approach with the QB unit after Ben, and drafting a flawed less than stunning QB in Pickett

The Steelers haven’t had a great draft in a long time and part of me wishes they let the bottom fall out with Rudolph for a few years restock the rest of the team and wait for their guy at QB

It'll be interesting to see the new FO at work this draft. I'm hoping a #s guy like Khan will realize the more lottery tickets we have the better and can work a smart trade down or two to get a few extra picks. One of my biggest complaints with Colbert/Tomlin was their complete lack of any nuance in working a draft board and their obvious need reaches (Burns, Edmunds) when the guy they wanted was gone (WJIII, Rashaan Evans) rather than going BPA or working a trade down.

[Stillchest]

Jizz Mop spoiler alert

We drafted a QB in Rd 1 last year

He’s been polarizing here

Story at 11

Very true.

However, there is a small contingent of posters, who will always dislike Pickett, regardless of how many games he wins, how well he performs, because he doesn’t possess outlier physical tools.

[Professor Half Wit]

Fair point TB


I guess for me much of it came down to
the Steelers slamming the door on Ben, having a clueless and middling approach with the QB unit after Ben, and drafting a flawed less than stunning QB in Pickett

The Steelers haven’t had a great draft in a long time and part of me wishes they let the bottom fall out with Rudolph for a few years restock the rest of the team and wait for their guy at QB

LeBeau pounded the table for Ben in every single draft meeting about the R1 pick leading up to the draft.

It was LeBeau more than any other coach on staff that wanted Ben.

Tells you something given that LeBeau is one of the greatest defensive minds and coaches in the history of the game.

[Professor Half Wit]

Jizz Mop spoiler alert

We drafted a QB in Rd 1 last year

He’s been polarizing here

Story at 11

Very true.

However, there is a small contingent of posters, who will always dislike Pickett, regardless of how many games he wins, how well he performs, because he doesn’t possess outlier physical tools.

Compared to normal humans he does, but not compared to the utter freaks.

[Pabst]

Jizz Mop spoiler alert

We drafted a QB in Rd 1 last year

He’s been polarizing here

Story at 11

Very true.

However, there is a small contingent of posters, who will always dislike Pickett, regardless of how many games he wins, how well he performs, because he doesn’t possess outlier physical tools.

Not going to name names or link quotes, but I was going back to check who i picked in the 2021 board mock the other day, and.....Let's just say there's a ton of overlap between those who hated Pickett and those who projected Zach Wilson as a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence.

Also, remember that once upon a time this 2023 QB class was supposed to be on par with 2004. There's no guarantee that next year's class pans out.

[K_C_]

Jizz Mop spoiler alert

We drafted a QB in Rd 1 last year

He’s been polarizing here

Story at 11

Very true.

However, there is a small contingent of posters, who will always dislike Pickett, regardless of how many games he wins, how well he performs, because he doesn’t possess outlier physical tools.

Not going to name names or link quotes, but I was going back to check who i picked in the 2021 board mock the other day, and.....Let's just say there's a ton of overlap between those who hated Pickett and those who projected Zach Wilson as a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence.

Also, remember that once upon a time this 2023 QB class was supposed to be on par with 2004. There's no guarantee that next year's class pans out.

I don't remember personally having any thoughts on Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson but I definitely didn't want Pickett and very much wanted Malik Willis.

Glad as fuck I'm not in charge of the Steelers draft.

[Pabst]

Very true.

However, there is a small contingent of posters, who will always dislike Pickett, regardless of how many games he wins, how well he performs, because he doesn’t possess outlier physical tools.

Not going to name names or link quotes, but I was going back to check who i picked in the 2021 board mock the other day, and.....Let's just say there's a ton of overlap between those who hated Pickett and those who projected Zach Wilson as a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence.

Also, remember that once upon a time this 2023 QB class was supposed to be on par with 2004. There's no guarantee that next year's class pans out.

I don't remember personally having any thoughts on Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson but I definitely didn't want Pickett and very much wanted Malik Willis.

Glad as fuck I'm not in charge of the Steelers draft.

I should have said "those who still hate Pickett" or something to that effect. I'm on record as not wanting Pickett last year either, but no one is going to confuse me with an NFL scout.

[bradshaw2ben]

I don't really give a shit about Pickett's tools. I want him to succeed at NFL QB things at a great to elite level. How he gets it done is his business.

I think a whole lot of angst would have been avoided if we go back in time and draft George Pickens in round 1 and Kenny Pickett in Round 2.

Pickens looks like a fantastic pick, Pickett a very promising 2nd rounder... but also without the baggage that he HAS to be your franchise QB and cannot be challenged in camp/you can't draft another 1st round QB for 5 years, etc.

So, I'm just going to choose to look at it that way. Give Kenny his run to see if he can win the Derby as an underdog, and if not, start looking for ways to move up to get the thrid best guy next year.

[franco32]

B2B,

That's a healthy way of looking at it. I'm still not sure Pickett would have lasted to our pick in Round 2 but who knows. Pickett is a competitor and a hard worker. Will it be enough? Last year he was a rookie with a young offense and a subpar line. He also had a horrific offensive coordinator.

This year he has less anchors weighing him down. He should have a much improved Oline (we hope). Another year with the WRs and TEs. So, really the only thing holding him back is Canada and Tomlin. Can he overcome them? We are about to learn a lot about Kenny this year.

I think it all worked out because this QB draft class didn't turn out to be all that great. It gives us another year to evaluate Kenny and then see what happens. If he doesn't take the next step, then you hope Omar and Weidl have the balls to go QB next year (assuming we are drafting somewhere closer to the top).

[fractalsteel]

I don't really give a shit about Pickett's tools. I want him to succeed at NFL QB things at a great to elite level. How he gets it done is his business.

I think a whole lot of angst would have been avoided if we go back in time and draft George Pickens in round 1 and Kenny Pickett in Round 2.

Pickens looks like a fantastic pick, Pickett a very promising 2nd rounder... but also without the baggage that he HAS to be your franchise QB and cannot be challenged in camp/you can't draft another 1st round QB for 5 years, etc.

So, I'm just going to choose to look at it that way. Give Kenny his run to see if he can win the Derby as an underdog, and if not, start looking for ways to move up to get the thrid best guy next year.

Interesting take and I can mostly agree with it.
I thought Pickett would have been there in the second round and I was surprised that Pickens still was. Would have been nice to get that 'option' year with Picken's contract if he had gone in the first.

And I don't see this kind of thought process to mean that some posters want Pickett to fail. Me, I hope the guys shocks us all and becomes a top tier QB but I have my doubts.
Being a first rounder and looking how the Steelers hold onto 1st rounders who struggle and still play this could put the franchise back a few years if #8 doesn't get it done.

Rooting for Pickett from this corner.

[bradshaw2ben]

B2B,

That's a healthy way of looking at it. I'm still not sure Pickett would have lasted to our pick in Round 2 but who knows. Pickett is a competitor and a hard worker. Will it be enough? Last year he was a rookie with a young offense and a subpar line. He also had a horrific offensive coordinator.

This year he has less anchors weighing him down. He should have a much improved Oline (we hope). Another year with the WRs and TEs. So, really the only thing holding him back is Canada and Tomlin. Can he overcome them? We are about to learn a lot about Kenny this year.

I think it all worked out because this QB draft class didn't turn out to be all that great. It gives us another year to evaluate Kenny and then see what happens. If he doesn't take the next step, then you hope Omar and Weidl have the balls to go QB next year (assuming we are drafting somewhere closer to the top).

I think it's safe to say: if Kenny isn't transcendent enough to overcome conservative/bad coaching/coordinating and at least look elite, then he's probably not the guy anyway. I'm certainly willing to factor in playcalling and so on into a guy's evaluation, but there still has to be NFL-like production.

[bradshaw2ben]

@fractalsteel
"And I don't see this kind of thought process to mean that some posters want Pickett to fail. Me, I hope the guys shocks us all and becomes a top tier QB but I have my doubts.
Being a first rounder and looking how the Steelers hold onto 1st rounders who struggle and still play this could put the franchise back a few years if #8 doesn't get it done."

this is it 100%

If you have a QB version of Devin Bush it hurts a lot more and for a longer period of time.
If you have a QB version of Terrell Edmunds, it can really set you back by trapping you slightly above mediocrity.

You'd rather have Ben/TJ Watt, of course, but if all else fails a big bust to accelerate the process might be the next best outcome.

[cop1211]

I was in the No QB in lasts years draft. With Pickett I think you can win a lot of games, with a DOMINANT defense.

[Kodiak.]

Having that R1 option year is huge with a QB.

I think, realistically, it's 3 years before you can have a strong opinion on the QB. That writes off the rookie year, and allows that many QB's have a sophomore slump to varying degrees. So in Year 3 I want to see the franchise potential, and then I want to see that repeated in Year 4 before breaking the bank.

It's going to be even harder because of Canada. Let's say defenses know what that JV small ball offense looks like with Pickett and adjust accordingly. Now you're looking to evaluate Pickett in that Year 3, except he's got a brand new OC....

[bradshaw2ben]

I was in the No QB in lasts years draft. With Pickett I think you can win a lot of games, with a DOMINANT defense.

Tomlin doesn't walk by 6 Divisional Round participant trophies on his way into the office every day.

There's no doubt that if you have a dominant defense and a gutsy QB who protects the ball and makes a few plays... you can win regular season games. In the right year, with good health for your team and a fluke injury or loss by better teams, you can even make a SB run.

[bradshaw2ben]

Having that R1 option year is huge with a QB.

I think, realistically, it's 3 years before you can have a strong opinion on the QB. That writes off the rookie year, and allows that many QB's have a sophomore slump to varying degrees. So in Year 3 I want to see the franchise potential, and then I want to see that repeated in Year 4 before breaking the bank.

It's going to be even harder because of Canada. Let's say defenses know what that JV small ball offense looks like with Pickett and adjust accordingly. Now you're looking to evaluate Pickett in that Year 3, except he's got a brand new OC....

I don't think it takes 4 years to figure out a QB in the NFL. If you have to sit him for a year or two it's one thing, but for a guy who had a lot of college experience coming in, we're going to have a pretty good read by the end of this year. It would be shocking to take a big step forward in year 4, let alone year 3 for a guy like that. It usually works the other way; they have early success and get figured out. That usually doesn't take 4 years either.

The extra year is great in theory if you do draft a super QB... but honestly if he's that great, he's getting a new deal before the 5th year anyway.

[yygy]

This shows the trap of waiting and trying to time it. Last year wasn’t good enough. This year is not good enough next year probably better to trade back a few and keep building up the roster.

One day you wake up and you’re this century’s Bill Cowher.

Last year at this time my feeling was draft ANY QB. Any QB is better than no QB. Very glad they got Pickett and put their flag in the ground. Now we can get on with the other business

[Professor Half Wit]

B2B,

That's a healthy way of looking at it. I'm still not sure Pickett would have lasted to our pick in Round 2 but who knows. Pickett is a competitor and a hard worker. Will it be enough? Last year he was a rookie with a young offense and a subpar line. He also had a horrific offensive coordinator.

This year he has less anchors weighing him down. He should have a much improved Oline (we hope). Another year with the WRs and TEs. So, really the only thing holding him back is Canada and Tomlin. Can he overcome them? We are about to learn a lot about Kenny this year.

I think it all worked out because this QB draft class didn't turn out to be all that great. It gives us another year to evaluate Kenny and then see what happens. If he doesn't take the next step, then you hope Omar and Weidl have the balls to go QB next year (assuming we are drafting somewhere closer to the top).

I think it's safe to say: if Kenny isn't transcendent enough to overcome conservative/bad coaching/coordinating and at least look elite, then he's probably not the guy anyway. I'm certainly willing to factor in playcalling and so on into a guy's evaluation, but there still has to be NFL-like production.

Holy shit, I never realized what a genius Tomlin is prior to reading this post. His entire offensive approach is designed to discover greatness in the QB by requiring the QB to overcome as much as possible to win and look good.

The man is brilliant.

[bradshaw2ben]

B2B,

That's a healthy way of looking at it. I'm still not sure Pickett would have lasted to our pick in Round 2 but who knows. Pickett is a competitor and a hard worker. Will it be enough? Last year he was a rookie with a young offense and a subpar line. He also had a horrific offensive coordinator.

This year he has less anchors weighing him down. He should have a much improved Oline (we hope). Another year with the WRs and TEs. So, really the only thing holding him back is Canada and Tomlin. Can he overcome them? We are about to learn a lot about Kenny this year.

I think it all worked out because this QB draft class didn't turn out to be all that great. It gives us another year to evaluate Kenny and then see what happens. If he doesn't take the next step, then you hope Omar and Weidl have the balls to go QB next year (assuming we are drafting somewhere closer to the top).

I think it's safe to say: if Kenny isn't transcendent enough to overcome conservative/bad coaching/coordinating and at least look elite, then he's probably not the guy anyway. I'm certainly willing to factor in playcalling and so on into a guy's evaluation, but there still has to be NFL-like production.

Holy shit, I never realized what a genius Tomlin is prior to reading this post. His entire offensive approach is designed to discover greatness in the QB by requiring the QB to overcome as much as possible to win and look good.

The man is brilliant.

[Pabst]

Didn't want to start a new thread on this, so might as well post it here.

When talking about trades and/or drafting a QB, it got me thinking about the Mahomes trade back in 2017. Everyone knows that KC moved way up to snag Mahomes in that draft, but no one seems to remember who they traded with or what they gave up. It's kind of fun to go back and look at these trade trees and see how they ended up, so without further adieu.....


Kansas City Chiefs
2017 Round 1, Pick 10 used to select Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

Buffalo Bills
2017 Round 1, Pick 27 used to select Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU
2017 Round 3, Pick 91 (later traded)
2018 Round 1, Pick 22 (later traded)

That Round 3 pick from KC would be traded to LA (with pick 2.44) for picks 2.37 and 5.149. Pick 5.149 would be packaged with 3.75 and 5.156 to move up to pick 2.63. Those picks?
2.37 - Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina
2.63 - Dion Dawkins, OT, Temple

The 2018 First Round pick from KC was packaged with pick 3.65 for picks 1.16 and 5.154. Those picks:
1.16 - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Va Tech
5.154 - Siran Neal, CB, Jacksonville State


I don't think anyone will argue that Buffalo won this trade, however.....The fact that they were able to turn this deal into an All Pro CB, Franchise LT, and use their original 2018 pick to acquire a Franchise QB of their own is pretty damn impressive.

Is there another example of a draft day trade working out so well for both teams in the long term?

[Scunge]

This shows the trap of waiting and trying to time it. Last year wasn’t good enough. This year is not good enough next year probably better to trade back a few and keep building up the roster.

One day you wake up and you’re this century’s Bill Cowher.

Last year at this time my feeling was draft ANY QB. Any QB is better than no QB. Very glad they got Pickett and put their flag in the ground. Now we can get on with the other business

This is where I am at with Kenny too. As I keep saying, sometimes the stars and planets don't align perfectly for you, when you want it to so desperately. The Steelers are not the type of team to tank and they want to compete every year, regardless of who is the QB.

When we had Duck Hodges and Mason playing in 2019 we still ended up 8-8. How exactly were we ever going to end up having a 2-15, 3-14, 4-13 season, to have a top 5 pick?

Also, this is not the old days of where a first round QB kills you cap wise. Kenny Pickett signed a 4 year, $14 million deal. His base salary this year is $870,000, his cap hit is only $3.197 million, that constitutes 1.4% of the cap.

And I don't understand the idea that we would just trade up and give away a boatload of picks. We need those picks to continue to build the roster. And if you gave away so many high picks to trade up for a QB, then how do build out the roster? You would then have to overpay most likely in free agency. All of this is very difficult, there are no easy answers, there is no shortcut.

I see Rodgers traded to the JETS and it makes me think, he only got Green Bay to one Super Bowl. One. Drew Brees only got to one Super Bowl. One. I know there are magical unicorns like Mahomme and Brady, but what does it really mean to be a franchise QB?

[franco32]

This shows the trap of waiting and trying to time it. Last year wasn’t good enough. This year is not good enough next year probably better to trade back a few and keep building up the roster.

One day you wake up and you’re this century’s Bill Cowher.

Last year at this time my feeling was draft ANY QB. Any QB is better than no QB. Very glad they got Pickett and put their flag in the ground. Now we can get on with the other business

This is where I am at with Kenny too. As I keep saying, sometimes the stars and planets don't align perfectly for you, when you want it to so desperately. The Steelers are not the type of team to tank and they want to compete every year, regardless of who is the QB.

When we had Duck Hodges and Mason playing in 2019 we still ended up 8-8. How exactly were we ever going to end up having a 2-15, 3-14, 4-13 season, to have a top 5 pick?

Also, this is not the old days of where a first round QB kills you cap wise. Kenny Pickett signed a 4 year, $14 million deal. His base salary this year is $870,000, his cap hit is only $3.197 million, that constitutes 1.4% of the cap.

And I don't understand the idea that we would just trade up and give away a boatload of picks. We need those picks to continue to build the roster. And if you gave away so many high picks to trade up for a QB, then how do build out the roster? You would then have to overpay most likely in free agency. All of this is very difficult, there are no easy answers, there is no shortcut.

I see Rodgers traded to the JETS and it makes me think, he only got Green Bay to one Super Bowl. One. Drew Brees only got to one Super Bowl. One. I know there are magical unicorns like Mahomme and Brady, but what does it really mean to be a franchise QB?

As good as Brady and Mahomes have been, they don't win SBs without offensive lines. Brady always had really good ones (along with good coaching). Mahomes' line was completely rebuilt quickly and he too has incredibly coaching. To me, a franchise guy is someone that helps you compete for a SB every year, but you still need oline, talent around you, and coaching to close the deal.