Playoffs, 2nd edition

[swissvale72]

I was taken to task a short time ago for introducing myself playoff talk. Well, at the risk of further angst, here we go again.

ESPN analytics, at the onset of the weekend, had Steelers at 30% to win the Norf. Now, the same crew has it at 70%.

Myself, I'm seeing Steelers at 10-4 going against the 9-5 ravens on December 21. If that's the case, a Steelers win that day clinches the Norf. A loss, and steelers would win the Norf with two season ending wins...a tall order admittedly.

[Texas Black & Gold]

I see the Steelers going 12-5 and maybe even 13-4.
They will beat the Browns, Chiefs, Bungles at home and maybe even win the 2 road games against the Rats and Eagles.

It is a matter of playoff seeding from here on out. The Chiefs have been lucky and the Bills can be beat.

I can even see the Steelers getting a 1st round bye.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Ws vs Browns Chiefs and Bengals

Lose to Chiefs in the playoffs

That’s my guess

[Who Dee Knee]

I was taken to task a short time ago for introducing myself playoff talk. Well, at the risk of further angst, here we go again.

ESPN analytics, at the onset of the weekend, had Steelers at 30% to win the Norf. Now, the same crew has it at 70%.

Myself, I'm seeing Steelers at 10-4 going against the 9-5 ravens on December 21. If that's the case, a Steelers win that day clinches the Norf. A loss, and steelers would win the Norf with two season ending wins...a tall order admittedly.

Agree totally Swiss. We kick the Browns’ asses on Sunday.

Neil Paine now has playoffs at 99.7% and division at 78.7%:

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-n ... rojections

He also has us sporting a 7.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

[SteelerDayTrader]

If Neil fucking Paine is on board sign me the fuck up

7.3% bitches !!!

[W&M_Steeler]

If Neil fucking Paine is on board sign me the fuck up

7.3% bitches !!!

[W&M_Steeler]

I now think the Steelers will finish 11-6, beating the Browns this week and the Bengals week 18. I don't see a win against the Eagles, who are now hitting their stride. The Ravens game will be tough, probably a loss in Baltimore. I don't think the Steelers beat the Chiefs on a short weak after the Ravens game.

5th seed might be better than winning the division, because the Steelers would get to start against the AFC South team.

[cyberlaz]

I think there is a good chance the Steelers run the table. The only game that bothers me is the Chiefs game on a short week. But the Chiefs have the same situation and have to come to Pittsburgh. So that works in the Steelers favor but the Chiefs seem like they are more of a mature team and the quick turn will give them an edge.

The eagles don't scare me. I live in the Philly area and see a lot of their games. At times they look awful. If the Steelers can get pressure on Hurts then they win. Hopefully by that game Highsmith will be back and the team of Watt, Herbig and Highsmith should tip the scales towards the Steelers. Going to need a good game out of the safeties too so time for Fitzpatrick to do something since Hurts like to throw the deep ball.

The Steelers will probably look for revenge on the Browns at home. I think that will be a win. Bengals will probably be packing it in by the time the Steelers play them so the Bengals half-ass that game in Pittsburgh.

At the worst I am thinking 3-2 for the final 5 games which puts them at 12-5 for the season. They could've easily been 11-1 going into the final five games...two losses were by the skin of their teeth.

This team is a lot better than what people think...the talking heads seem to be not convinced of it yet and they should know better. The Steelers can beat you running or passing and can stop the run and pressure the quarterback consistently. They have excellent special teams and a kicker with ice in his veins. Their biggest weakness is the secondary...I don't really know if Fitz has been in a slump or if its the defense design but we are going to need him in this stretch. And dare I forget...Wilson can slice and dice your defense with his eyes and rarely misses an open guy.

[LakecrestSteeler]

The eagles don't scare me……. Going to need a good game out of the safeties too so time for Fitzpatrick to do something since Hurts like to throw the deep ball..

That is what scares me! Eagles, Hurts and Brown had a fiesta in the backfield with Fitz last time out.

Fitz probably has a monkey on his back at this point. He is not even the best safety in the division.

[SteelerDayTrader]

The Steelers can beat you running or passing and can stop the run and pressure the quarterback consistently

Do you think that melting crayons and drinking them helps you ??

[bradshaw2ben]

I suspect the Steelers will win vs Cleveland... but I think this will be a big scare.

Most likely a loss in Philly and a loss to a do or die Ravens team (splits are the most likely scenario in the division).

That puts them at 9-5 on Christmas vs the Chiefs. Huge game. Honestly, I don't really know who the Chiefs are. They remind me so much of the Steelers of the last few Ben years: fuck around for 3 quarters, look lost on defense, then get bailed out by a miracle, a STs play, a stupid mistake by the other team, a huge play from either defense or Mahomes or both. I couldn't pick that game if you let me see the score after 3 quarters.

To me, the best thing that can happen for the Steelers chances going forward is for the Bengals to keep losing and get themselves 100% eliminated before week 18 and for Joe Burrow to be banged up and not dressed for that game.

It feels like if that happens to the Bengals, no matter what––the Steelers are making the playoffs and have a chance to win a game vs the 3 seed Ravens or the 4 seed Houston. That's the worst-case. Winning the division is a tough ask; schedule is a bitch this month.

[Pabst]

To me, the best thing that can happen for the Steelers chances going forward is for the Bengals to keep losing and get themselves 100% eliminated before week 18 and for Joe Burrow to be banged up and not dressed for that game.

The Bengals' chances of still being alive in Week 18 are somewhere between slim and none.

According to the playoff machine, they're already eliminated from the AFC North (Steelers win the tiebreaker if both teams finish 9-8), and at 9-8 Cincy will lose the tiebreaker with Baltimore, LA, and Miami.

Edit: Totally forgot about Indy, who finishes the year with Jacksonville twice and the NYG.

[LakecrestSteeler]

I suspect the Steelers will win vs Cleveland... but I think this will be a big scare.

Pretty sure the Browns’ spine was broken last night. And Winston will be due for some INT record to close out the season!

[swissvale72]

To me, the best thing that can happen for the Steelers chances going forward is for the Bengals to keep losing and get themselves 100% eliminated before week 18 and for Joe Burrow to be banged up and not dressed for that game.

The Bengals' chances of still being alive in Week 18 are somewhere between slim and none.

According to the playoff machine, they're already eliminated from the AFC North (Steelers win the tiebreaker if both teams finish 9-8), and at 9-8 Cincy will lose the tiebreaker with Baltimore, LA, and Miami.

Edit: Totally forgot about Indy, who finishes the year with Jacksonville twice and the NYG.

Before Indy finishes the year with that weak schedule though, they visit Denver, which could well be their 8th loss. And if it's not, Denver could be in some trouble, as after indy, they visit chargers, visit bengals, and host chiefs, who could be playing for #1 seed.

[Pabst]

Before Indy finishes the year with that weak schedule though, they visit Denver, which could well be their 8th loss. And if it's not, Denver could be in some trouble, as after indy, they visit chargers, visit bengals, and host chiefs, who could be playing for #1 seed.

A 9-8 Indianapolis would win the tiebreaker over Cincy as well.

Honestly, a Denver win vs Indy in 2 weeks might be the worst case scenario for the Bungles. The Giants are tanking at this point and the Jags might as well be.

[bradshaw2ben]

I suspect the Steelers will win vs Cleveland... but I think this will be a big scare.

Pretty sure the Browns’ spine was broken last night. And Winston will be due for some INT record to close out the season!

He just threw for nearly 500 yards vs a pretty dang good Denver defense and Dan Moore still plays LT, so I'd say even if Jamies throws some more picks, it might be close.

[bradshaw2ben]

To me, the best thing that can happen for the Steelers chances going forward is for the Bengals to keep losing and get themselves 100% eliminated before week 18 and for Joe Burrow to be banged up and not dressed for that game.

The Bengals' chances of still being alive in Week 18 are somewhere between slim and none.

According to the playoff machine, they're already eliminated from the AFC North (Steelers win the tiebreaker if both teams finish 9-8), and at 9-8 Cincy will lose the tiebreaker with Baltimore, LA, and Miami.

Edit: Totally forgot about Indy, who finishes the year with Jacksonville twice and the NYG.

I mean, that scenario also requires Burrow to be banged up and not playing week 18. Otherwise, ti becomes the Bengals Super Bowl.

[Pabst]

I mean, that scenario also requires Burrow to be banged up and not playing week 18. Otherwise, ti becomes the Bengals Super Bowl.

Oh, i hear you, I'm just saying that one part of this hypothetical is very unlikely.

There's also the possibility that the Steelers are locked into their playoff spot in week 18 and the game is meaningless for both sides.

[LakecrestSteeler]

I suspect the Steelers will win vs Cleveland... but I think this will be a big scare.

Pretty sure the Browns’ spine was broken last night. And Winston will be due for some INT record to close out the season!

He just threw for nearly 500 yards vs a pretty dang good Denver defense and Dan Moore still plays LT, so I'd say even if Jamies throws some more picks, it might be close.

Jeudy had Levi Wallace the whole night and he was playing his career game. I am pretty sure Winston's alarm went off in the 4th quarter from his dream like state over the last 4 games.

The whole team left the field with their tails between their legs. Fingers crossed it is a much easier win.

[cyberlaz]

The Steelers can beat you running or passing and can stop the run and pressure the quarterback consistently

Do you think that melting crayons and drinking them helps you ??

Do you think putting down people makes you a better person? Or do you think that it makes you cool to everyone else on here. Do you think other posters call in their friends, wives, etc. and show them your cool post and they all think "WOW! That internet rando is the coolest guy!"

Oh and btw...thank you for telling me I am better than you.

[SteelerDayTrader]

The Steelers can beat you running or passing and can stop the run and pressure the quarterback consistently

Do you think that melting crayons and drinking them helps you ??

Do you think putting down people makes you a better person? Or do you think that it makes you cool to everyone else on here. Do you think other posters call in their friends, wives, etc. and show them your cool post and they all think "WOW! That internet rando is the coolest guy!"

Oh and btw...thank you for telling me I am better than you.

You are correct

I apologize

[cyberlaz]

Do you think that melting crayons and drinking them helps you ??

Do you think putting down people makes you a better person? Or do you think that it makes you cool to everyone else on here. Do you think other posters call in their friends, wives, etc. and show them your cool post and they all think "WOW! That internet rando is the coolest guy!"

Oh and btw...thank you for telling me I am better than you.

You are correct

I apologize

That is mighty cool of you. I will show that to others.

Hey...I will admit I am no football expert. Love to play the game (not so much any more because I am an old man) and love to watch and I love my Steelers! But if you see something I post and disagree that is cool Tell me why so I can see it another way, learn, etc. That is the only reason I come here and put up with the bs is to get other's people takes on things, learn things, and put some ideas out there. Some of my thoughts may be wrong or maybe they might be right. It's all just discussion and no reason to get personal.

[tbsteel]

With NHALS secured, I'm all on board.

You don't have too many realistic chances to burst through that door, so we might as well give it our best shove this year. We can worry about the best COA going forward when the season is over.

I think it will come down to a few things but the biggest one to me is the play of the offensive line. Broderick looks to be somewhat cleaning up his gnarly footwork and hand usage. Frazier and McCormick are really starting to shine. Seumalo looks to be getting back and rounding into form. And GDit, Dan Moore just keeps finding a way. I still think Russ looks a little more frazzled and non-threatening when the pocket is collapsing than I'd like, but he looks motivated to make a statement this year and prove he's not done. If we don't have to max protect and can run more creative (for the Steelers anyways) passing sets knowing our 5 with a chip from the RB will hold up, that will be huge.

I still think there's a clear separation between Buffalo and KC to the rest of the AFC, but I think we can give basically every team in the conference a damn good run for their money and take most down in a playoff setting.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Do you think putting down people makes you a better person? Or do you think that it makes you cool to everyone else on here. Do you think other posters call in their friends, wives, etc. and show them your cool post and they all think "WOW! That internet rando is the coolest guy!"

Oh and btw...thank you for telling me I am better than you.

You are correct

I apologize

That is mighty cool of you. I will show that to others.

Hey...I will admit I am no football expert. Love to play the game (not so much any more because I am an old man) and love to watch and I love my Steelers! But if you see something I post and disagree that is cool Tell me why so I can see it another way, learn, etc. That is the only reason I come here and put up with the bs is to get other's people takes on things, learn things, and put some ideas out there. Some of my thoughts may be wrong or maybe they might be right. It's all just discussion and no reason to get personal.

You are right

Truthfully I had you confused with someone else lol

I find most of your posts worthwhile reading

Again my apologies

[jmacinwbp]

With NHALS secured, I'm all on board.

You don't have too many realistic chances to burst through that door, so we might as well give it our best shove this year. We can worry about the best COA going forward when the season is over.

I think it will come down to a few things but the biggest one to me is the play of the offensive line. Broderick looks to be somewhat cleaning up his gnarly footwork and hand usage. Frazier and McCormick are really starting to shine. Seumalo looks to be getting back and rounding into form. And GDit, Dan Moore just keeps finding a way. I still think Russ looks a little more frazzled and non-threatening when the pocket is collapsing than I'd like, but he looks motivated to make a statement this year and prove he's not done. If we don't have to max protect and can run more creative (for the Steelers anyways) passing sets knowing our 5 with a chip from the RB will hold up, that will be huge.

I still think there's a clear separation between Buffalo and KC to the rest of the AFC, but I think we can give basically every team in the conference a damn good run for their money and take most down in a playoff setting.

Great news, took a little longer than you originally said back in week 8, after the second start by Russ, but welcome aboard TB; looking forward to seeing your change in posture reflected in the game day threads.

I mostly agree with your analysis, would include avoiding major injuries to key contributors, as slightly more important than the Oline continuing to jell, though it's a close call. If the Oline gets even a little more solid, this team could very well be competitive in the POs for the AFC Superbowl representative.

[jeemie]

I don’t know why…maybe because I’m beginning to believe in the NFL is scripted nonsense…

…but I’m beginning to sense a Denver/Pittsburgh wild card matchup.

Chock full of storylines.

[lifelongsteel]

I now think the Steelers will finish 11-6, beating the Browns this week and the Bengals week 18. I don't see a win against the Eagles, who are now hitting their stride. The Ravens game will be tough, probably a loss in Baltimore. I don't think the Steelers beat the Chiefs on a short weak after the Ravens game.

5th seed might be better than winning the division, because the Steelers would get to start against the AFC South team.

If the choices were

A: #3 seed with home against the Ravens followed by road against the Bills or
B: #5 seed with road against Texans followed by road against Chiefs . . .

I think I'd take B.

But obviously a lot could happen from here on out.

The next 5 are winnable. I do think they take care of business with the Ohio teams at home. Lose to Ravens on road. Split the other two. Finish at 12-5.

Anyone know the tiebreaker status vs. Ravens if both teams finish with the same records overall and in the division?

[Pabst]

I now think the Steelers will finish 11-6, beating the Browns this week and the Bengals week 18. I don't see a win against the Eagles, who are now hitting their stride. The Ravens game will be tough, probably a loss in Baltimore. I don't think the Steelers beat the Chiefs on a short weak after the Ravens game.

5th seed might be better than winning the division, because the Steelers would get to start against the AFC South team.

If the choices were

A: #3 seed with home against the Ravens followed by road against the Bills or
B: #5 seed with road against Texans followed by road against Chiefs . . .

I think I'd take B.

But obviously a lot could happen from here on out.

The next 5 are winnable. I do think they take care of business with the Ohio teams at home. Lose to Ravens on road. Split the other two. Finish at 12-5.

Anyone know the tiebreaker status vs. Ravens if both teams finish with the same records overall and in the division?

There's a very plausible option C which is #3 seed and home to the Chargers.

On your bolded question, if the Ravens/Steelers both finish 12-5 and split their series and have the same division record, the next tiebreaker is common games. The common opponents (outside of the division) are:
Raiders (+1)
Cowboys (-1)
Commanders (both won)
Broncos (both won)
Chargers (both won)
Giants
Eagles
Chiefs


So in this scenario, since Baltimore lost to both KC and Philly, the Steelers splitting those games means they own the tiebreaker.

[swissvale72]

I now think the Steelers will finish 11-6, beating the Browns this week and the Bengals week 18. I don't see a win against the Eagles, who are now hitting their stride. The Ravens game will be tough, probably a loss in Baltimore. I don't think the Steelers beat the Chiefs on a short weak after the Ravens game.

5th seed might be better than winning the division, because the Steelers would get to start against the AFC South team.

If the choices were

A: #3 seed with home against the Ravens followed by road against the Bills or
B: #5 seed with road against Texans followed by road against Chiefs . . .

I think I'd take B.

But obviously a lot could happen from here on out.

The next 5 are winnable. I do think they take care of business with the Ohio teams at home. Lose to Ravens on road. Split the other two. Finish at 12-5.

Anyone know the tiebreaker status vs. Ravens if both teams finish with the same records overall and in the division?

There's a very plausible option C which is #3 seed and home to the Chargers.

On your bolded question, if the Ravens/Steelers both finish 12-5 and split their series and have the same division record, the next tiebreaker is common games. The common opponents (outside of the division) are:
Raiders (+1)
Cowboys (-1)
Commanders (both won)
Broncos (both won)
Chargers (both won)
Giants
Eagles
Chiefs


So in this scenario, since Baltimore lost to both KC and Philly, the Steelers splitting those games means they own the tiebreaker.

I was working some of this out, different scenarios.

-if Steelers beat ravens, they win the norf by winning just one more game, doesn't matter which one.

-if Steelers lose to ravens and ravens win out, Steelers would need to win 3, specifically vs. browns, chiefs, bengals

-if somehow, they beat browns, eagles, bengals and ravens win out, I think ravens win norf based on strength of victory, with it coming down to ravens win v cowboys beats out Steelers win v ravens

My dream scenario is Steelers take 3-seed, beat chargers at acrisure, then beat chiefs in arrowhead, then after ravens beat bills again...in Buffalo this time, beat ravens again, at acrisure

[Pabst]

-if Steelers lose to ravens and ravens win out, Steelers would need to win 3, specifically vs. browns, chiefs, bengals

-if somehow, they beat browns, eagles, bengals and ravens win out, I think ravens win norf based on strength of victory, with it coming down to ravens win v cowboys beats out Steelers win v ravens

Within the division the common games tiebreaker comes before the Conference record tiebreaker.

Since the Ravens lost to both Philly and KC, if the Steelers win either game they'll own the tiebreaker (assuming they beat the Ohio teams).