TNF: Lions Packers

[langer]

Herbie is so super positive I love it. Everything is so great. It's really nice to hear someone so positive.

He's a veritable saint this guy.

Redzone RefBall in operation already.

[LakecrestSteeler]

The fumble was ridiculous. Lost balance and acted like he was over top a pit of rattle snakes and had to do everything possible not to fall. Should have just handed off to Detroit.

[stillthere]

Lions are more successful on 4th down than the Steelers tend to be on 1st down.

[Ice]

Hard to believe Dan Campbell doesn't have trouble walking around with balls that size.

[Orangesteel]

Lions vs Steelers Super Bowl

or

Lions vs Bills Super Bowl

[Pabst]

BRB, gonna bet the over on the Lions/Bills next weekend.

[swissvale72]

All the fuss about Dan Campbell this morning...I'm kinda hoping he gets fucked again in the playoffs going for it on 4th down

[Deebo]

All the fuss about Dan Campbell this morning...I'm kinda hoping he gets fucked again in the playoffs going for it on 4th down

He plays a very dangerous game on those margins.

Definitely time and a place to go for it. "All the Time" isn't the right move...

[zeke5123]

All the fuss about Dan Campbell this morning...I'm kinda hoping he gets fucked again in the playoffs going for it on 4th down

He plays a very dangerous game on those margins.

Definitely time and a place to go for it. "All the Time" isn't the right move...

This article is helpful to think about it. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hedges-are-for-gardens/

[bradshaw2ben]

All the fuss about Dan Campbell this morning...I'm kinda hoping he gets fucked again in the playoffs going for it on 4th down

He plays a very dangerous game on those margins.

Definitely time and a place to go for it. "All the Time" isn't the right move...

This article is helpful to think about it. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hedges-are-for-gardens/

Yep. A great explanation.

Like any strategy, you really have to use it as often as you can to see the increased effects. If DET fails on a 4th down in its territory without having gotten points out of going for it and making it multiple times earlier in the game, it that one failure looks a lot worse.

Even the most conservative teams have figured out that there's no big statistical advantage in punting on 4th down from the opponent's side of the field. Someday they'll come around to the chocking idea that your defense doesn't have to give up a TD every time you fail on 4th down and give the other team field position or an extra possession.

But old habits die hard. Making the Dan Campbell 4th down choices in a game where your season isn't on the line vs making it in the playoffs or Super Bowl is a different scenario. However, I can't imagine Mike Tomlin is going to be seduced by something as esoteric as math.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

I like Campbell's courage but that was stupid. Lock up the FG and if they tie (unlikely) deal with it in OT.

Doesn't say a lot about faith in his defense which is why I think Philly is better right now.

[swissvale72]

I like Campbell's courage but that was stupid. Lock up the FG and if they tie (unlikely) deal with it in OT.

Doesn't say a lot about faith in his defense which is why I think Philly is better right now.

My assessment as well....40 seconds left, no timeouts...odds were against GB driving for a FG

[jeemie]

I like Campbell's courage but that was stupid. Lock up the FG and if they tie (unlikely) deal with it in OT.

Doesn't say a lot about faith in his defense which is why I think Philly is better right now.

I disagree.

Only one choice...going for it...allowed for the possibility of locking up the game because Green Bay would never touch the ball again, and Detroit's short game is pretty good.

If it was 4th and 2 I might look at it a little differently, but it was 4th and inches.

[jeemie]

I like Campbell's courage but that was stupid. Lock up the FG and if they tie (unlikely) deal with it in OT.

Doesn't say a lot about faith in his defense which is why I think Philly is better right now.

My assessment as well....40 seconds left, no timeouts...odds were against GB driving for a FG

If the odds were against them driving for a FG, then going for it was even more the right call because it was the only one to take the win probability almost to 100%.

[swissvale72]

I like Campbell's courage but that was stupid. Lock up the FG and if they tie (unlikely) deal with it in OT.

Doesn't say a lot about faith in his defense which is why I think Philly is better right now.

My assessment as well....40 seconds left, no timeouts...odds were against GB driving for a FG

If the odds were against them driving for a FG, then going for it was even more the right call because it was the only one to take the win probability almost to 100%.

Huh? If odds were against GB driving for a FG with 40 seconds and no timeouts, would not the proper call be for detroit to kick the gimme FG on 4th down?

[SteelerDayTrader]

All the fuss about Dan Campbell this morning...I'm kinda hoping he gets fucked again in the playoffs going for it on 4th down

[SteelerDayTrader]

Going for it on 4th down comes down to a few larger issues imo

- Are you reasonably sure you are going to win on that play ? Forget about all kinds of situational parameters are you the better team and are your guys going to win on that play ? The math and the situational outcomes all float around that

- Are you out of options OR steadily decreasing time is significantly slicing your options barring crazy occurrences ?

- Most of the situational ideas beyond the above mentioned are mostly about time. Do you have a reasonable amount of time to recover from scenarios the other team will address if they stop you on 4th down ? Those being drive for FG or TD or use some amount of clock and field position and punt the ball. If you DO have time to recover AND you are the better team why not go for it ?

- Of course as B2B mentioned earlier your defense certainly doesn’t have to give up points or yards and as we all know they COULD get a turnover. Even to the point of “setting up” the other team if options are dwindling



All that ^^^^ said


I’m probably in favor of punting and letting the defense go to work more than most

Particularly if you ARE the better team.

I do think decidedly weaker teams sometimes need to create more opportunities a fair amount of time

[jeemie]

My assessment as well....40 seconds left, no timeouts...odds were against GB driving for a FG

If the odds were against them driving for a FG, then going for it was even more the right call because it was the only one to take the win probability almost to 100%.

Huh? If odds were against GB driving for a FG with 40 seconds and no timeouts, would not the proper call be for detroit to kick the gimme FG on 4th down?

No it was to convert the first down, drive the clock down to almost nothing and win with a gimme FG.

Worst most probable scenario was OT. Best was what happened.

Kick the gimme FG…you never know what might happen with the kickoff.

The odds were favorable…go for it. This wasn’t like last year against the Niners.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

Analytics favor kick the FG by three percent:

https://www.sbnation.com/2024/12/6/2431 ... -the-lions

[CKSteeler]

I like Campbell's courage but that was stupid. Lock up the FG and if they tie (unlikely) deal with it in OT.

Doesn't say a lot about faith in his defense which is why I think Philly is better right now.

My assessment as well....40 seconds left, no timeouts...odds were against GB driving for a FG

If the odds were against them driving for a FG, then going for it was even more the right call because it was the only one to take the win probability almost to 100%.

Jeemie usually makes sense even when I disagree. I'm having a real hard time following this logic. It's STD like.