Bell’s contribution this year

[Legacy User]

At this point they have to let Conner remain the starter and spell him with Bell when Bell is back in game shape.

[Ice]

The Steelers just don't guarantee money up front. It's not the way they (or the Patriots, as another example) do it. He would have gotten more than enough guaranteed money. I think he'll struggle to find anything long term (age, character, injury history) or guaranteed on the open market.

[bradshaw2ben]

The Steelers just don't guarantee money up front. It's not the way they (or the Patriots, as another example) do it. He would have gotten more than enough guaranteed money. I think he'll struggle to find anything long term (age, character, injury history) or guaranteed on the open market.

Steelers have paid the highest percentage of their signed contracts of any NFL team... something like 95%.

[steelmann58]

Bell was fool IMO and what team is going to go out their way and give him that guranteed money he thinks he will get as a FA especially if he does not see the field this season.

[Kodiak]

Steelers have paid the highest percentage of their signed contracts of any NFL team... something like 95%.

That's the money stat. About what I would have guessed. Why Bell was even more stupid to turn down the 5/$70M offer.

I seriously think Bell is the idiot betting box cars at the craps table. I think that explains everything.

[bradshaw2ben]

Steelers have paid the highest percentage of their signed contracts of any NFL team... something like 95%.

That's the money stat. About what I would have guessed. Why Bell was even more stupid to turn down the 5/$70M offer.

I seriously think Bell is the idiot betting box cars at the craps table. I think that explains everything.

Not quite 95... but at least 88% (they paid more this year):

According to Ian Whetstone, an author of overthecap.com: “Since 2002, the Steelers have signed homegrown players to $774,826,457 worth of second contracts through 2017. They've paid out $682,288,369 of that amount. That's 88 percent. When people say that NFL contracts don't mean anything, it largely doesn't apply to homegrown Steelers. Oh, and only $196,481,000 of those contracts were guaranteed. More than 70 percent of what they've paid out was non-guaranteed salaries and bonuses.”

More from Whetstone: “While I'm crunching numbers, this holds pretty true for contracts for these homegrown Steelers players beyond their second (contracts). In that same time frame, the team signed $413,480,441 worth of third, fourth, and fifth contracts--$119,610,000 guaranteed – and paid out $322,510,876 (78 percent).”

What Whetstone’s research shows is that just because the money isn’t technically guaranteed, the Steelers historically honor the numbers they put on paper.

[strom detmer]

"Money cannot buy happiness, but it can buy a helicopter and land right next to it. " - Diamond David Lee Roth the gay lead singer of Van Halen

Beware, my friends, for the tale I bring before you now contains terrors so horrid, so nightmarish, so disturbing that readers under 12 may be haunted by their dark visages for many nights to come. Only those well acquainted with the shadowy depths of the human soul should partake of the tapestry of terror I will weave for you with the next words I type. L Bell makes us better, not just because he is the second best second string running back on earth but also the animosity toward his hold out has allowed our 26 jerseys to say Woodson again, which reminds us our heroes eat our hearts frequently, which reminds us we hate the fucking Ravens, which reminds us this is Ravens week!! which reminds us Fuck the Ravens...fucking Woodson ....Anyone know how to use Tor browser to buy things I should not be buying? Whose house is this letting me write on the walls?

[Legacy User]

Steelers have paid the highest percentage of their signed contracts of any NFL team... something like 95%.

That's the money stat. About what I would have guessed. Why Bell was even more stupid to turn down the 5/$70M offer.

I seriously think Bell is the idiot betting box cars at the craps table. I think that explains everything.

Not quite 95... but at least 88% (they paid more this year):

According to Ian Whetstone, an author of overthecap.com: “Since 2002, the Steelers have signed homegrown players to $774,826,457 worth of second contracts through 2017. They've paid out $682,288,369 of that amount. That's 88 percent. When people say that NFL contracts don't mean anything, it largely doesn't apply to homegrown Steelers. Oh, and only $196,481,000 of those contracts were guaranteed. More than 70 percent of what they've paid out was non-guaranteed salaries and bonuses.”

More from Whetstone: “While I'm crunching numbers, this holds pretty true for contracts for these homegrown Steelers players beyond their second (contracts). In that same time frame, the team signed $413,480,441 worth of third, fourth, and fifth contracts--$119,610,000 guaranteed – and paid out $322,510,876 (78 percent).”

What Whetstone’s research shows is that just because the money isn’t technically guaranteed, the Steelers historically honor the numbers they put on paper.

Ian had a spreadsheet sorted from top to bottom of % of the entire cap like 4 years out.

So if you converted it into a pie chart you would of course see Ben having the biggest chunk of the pie,

What was even more interesting is how he had the contracts mature several years out as well as dead money still owned to Troy, etc.

This was around the time Troy retired.

Yeah...Ian knows his shit with these numbers and the "what if" scenarios.

[W&M_Steeler]

You guys kill me...it’s like you don’t know this organization. As soon as Lev Bell signs and shows he’s even close to game shape, he’s going in to the lineup.
You know it, I know it, Bell knows it, and most importantly...Mike Tomlin knows it!

I don’t believe that for a second. I think they will deliberate for a long while, MT and the Front Office. This decision will have repercussions and there is probably no right and wrong answer, only the ability to stay the course and make it seem like the decision was correct.

I think James Conner being a Pitt product, and a particularly beloved one at that, will make the Steelers more hesitant to bench him. I agree that Bell would likely be put right back in the line-up if Conner were from Boise State or somewhere. But Conner has been great and everyone loves him in Pittsburgh. See, for example, Bouchette's article about Conner from yesterday: http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/stee ... 1810310148

Meanwhile, Bell has worn out his welcome. I think PR concerns will come into play at least to some extent to prevent Mike T from rushing Bell back into the starting line-up. I would think the Steelers would catch a great deal of heat from the fanbase and local media if they benched Conner for Bell, especially if Bell comes back rusty and out of shape.

Besides, would you really trust Bell at this point to give his all even if he does return?

[Legacy User]

"Money cannot buy happiness, but it can buy a helicopter and land right next to it. " - Diamond David Lee Roth the gay lead singer of Van Halen

Beware, my friends, for the tale I bring before you now contains terrors so horrid, so nightmarish, so disturbing that readers under 12 may be haunted by their dark visages for many nights to come. Only those well acquainted with the shadowy depths of the human soul should partake of the tapestry of terror I will weave for you with the next words I type. L Bell makes us better, not just because he is the second best second string running back on earth but also the animosity toward his hold out has allowed our 26 jerseys to say Woodson again, which reminds us our heroes eat our hearts frequently, which reminds us we hate the fucking Ravens, which reminds us this is Ravens week!! which reminds us Fuck the Ravens...fucking Woodson ....Anyone know how to use Tor browser to buy things I should not be buying? Whose house is this letting me write on the walls?

[Turns wildly to run and faceplants the door jamb]

And yes, btw, I do know how to use Tor. But I wouldn't recommend it. It's like using b2b's new age metrics to assess the health and strength of a team or unit. You definitely will get something out of it, but it won't look like ANYTHING you expected. Why? Because it is a riddle, wrapped in an enigma, full of sound and fury, representing nothing but a silent scream.

[DP39]

I've been saying - for well over a month now - this team is done with Bell and he's not coming back or, at least, playing here again. They will get their earned value out of him though. If you listened/watched closely you could see the writing on the wall.

It looks like a few in the national media are finally starting to see this as well.

[Legacy User]

I've been saying - for well over a month now - this team is done with Bell and he's not coming back or, at least, playing here again. They will get their earned value out of him though. If you listened/watched closely you could see the writing on the wall.

It looks like a few in the national media are finally starting to see this as well.

I think there is a plot twist or two that still remain here. But honestly, there's good arguments for both sides. I can see him not playing a down this year. But I would also not be one bit surprised if he gets inserted in at least a limited role two weeks after signing. I do see him signing, however, unless he and the organization come to an "agreement" and circumvent the CBA. Hard to believe Art2 would do that. But you never know.

[jebrick]

The Steelers will transition tag Bell and he will sign because he will not get a better offer.

[steelergenie]

He's not coming back. Too much of a distraction. Rappin down the road. Unless, Deuce forces him on the team.

[W&M_Steeler]

The Steelers will transition tag Bell and he will sign because he will not get a better offer.

Why would the Steelers want to tie up so much of their cap space on Bell next year?

I think that Bell is almost certainly gone after this year. And given the cap space (with Bell off the books and his cap space from this year rolling into next), along with Shazier coming off the books, I think the Steelers will be active in FA, particularly on the defensive side. With that in mind, I doubt we end up getting a comp pick for Bell.

[Kodiak]

I have no idea anymore.

After walking away from this much money, what incentive does Bell have to play at all this year? I think he knows PIT isn't going to tag him again next year, so the only reason he shows up is to start collecting that $855k a week.

I think PIT will not rescind the tag. Although they probably should, if Conner got hurt they would be called historically stupid for letting Bell go and heads would roll. So I think if Bell does sign, PIT just writes off that $6M as insurance to backup Conner.

Conner should and will remain the starter, but I think Bell will get more snaps than people expect. Tomlin is going to love the difference in styles and the pressure that puts on defenses.

[USS Steelerworks]

The Steelers will transition tag Bell and he will sign because he will not get a better offer.

Why would the Steelers want to tie up so much of their cap space on Bell next year?

I think that Bell is almost certainly gone after this year. And given the cap space (with Bell off the books and his cap space from this year rolling into next), along with Shazier coming off the books, I think the Steelers will be active in FA, particularly on the defensive side. With that in mind, I doubt we end up getting a comp pick for Bell.

Depends - if the transition tag price tag is based on his 2018 salary of 4 games played which is what the Steelers are arguing it should be based on the CBA wording then the salary cap space he takes up really isn’t a whole lot. Best case scenario would be then that Bell signs with a new team in the off-season, the Steelers match the offer and then work out a trade for said team rather than rely on receiving an uncertain compensatory draft pick.

[Legacy User]

I have no idea anymore.

After walking away from this much money, what incentive does Bell have to play at all this year? I think he knows PIT isn't going to tag him again next year, so the only reason he shows up is to start collecting that $855k a week.

I think PIT will not rescind the tag. Although they probably should, if Conner got hurt they would be called historically stupid for letting Bell go and heads would roll. So I think if Bell does sign, PIT just writes off that $6M as insurance to backup Conner.

Conner should and will remain the starter, but I think Bell will get more snaps than people expect. Tomlin is going to love the difference in styles and the pressure that puts on defenses.

I'm with ya on all but the "heads will roll" statement. The decisions, past, present, and future, surrounding Bell are being made by the highest levels of the organization. Art2 would be rolling his own head. A stupid decision regarding Bell will simply be swept under the rug and left there for all the talking heads to crow over.

[Kodiak]

I'm with ya on all but the "heads will roll" statement. The decisions, past, present, and future, surrounding Bell are being made by the highest levels of the organization.

Good point. Pretty easy for the 3 of them to sit down and agree on what to do - you take the risk rescinding the tag or not, weighed possibly against what you think keeping him means to the locker room and team chemistry. Considering they got burned that year Bell got hurt, I don't expect them to rescind the tag.

If I didn't consider $6M in cap to be signficiant, I'd pay Bell just out of spite so he has to wait another 6 months, at least, before getting his new deal.

[Kodiak]

Best case scenario would be then that Bell signs with a new team in the off-season, the Steelers match the offer and then work out a trade for said team rather than rely on receiving an uncertain compensatory draft pick.

But you have to consider the offer they'd be matching is presumably more than any other team wanted to pay him.

So basically they would have to eat some portion of that new deal for another team to be willing to take on that cap hit. Or maybe for a player a team is interested in moving but can't because of the cap hit.

A whole lot of "ifs" and risk....I don't think they want any part of Bell. I'd be shocked if they put a transition tag on him.

[Legacy User]

I'm with ya on all but the "heads will roll" statement. The decisions, past, present, and future, surrounding Bell are being made by the highest levels of the organization.

Good point. Pretty easy for the 3 of them to sit down and agree on what to do - you take the risk rescinding the tag or not, weighed possibly against what you think keeping him means to the locker room and team chemistry. Considering they got burned that year Bell got hurt, I don't expect them to rescind the tag.

If I didn't consider $6M in cap to be signficiant, I'd pay Bell just out of spite so he has to wait another 6 months, at least, before getting his new deal.

...and make him suit up as nose tackle!

[steelergenie]

Ravens’ DC: A lot of stats say Steelers are better without Le’Veon Bell

The Steelers have now played half a season without running back Le'Veon Bell, and their offense hasn’t missed a beat with James Conner in Bell’s place. And the Steelers’ next opponent even thinks Pittsburgh might be better without Bell.
Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale said today that statistically speaking, the Steelers’ offense has performed better in a lot of respects without Bell on the field.

“There are a lot of stats [since 2015] that the Steelers are actually better without him,” Martindale said, via ESPN. “That might be why he’s riding a jet ski down in Miami right now.”
That might sound crazy at first: After all, Bell is widely respected in the NFL. He was voted a first-team All-Pro by the media last year, and his peers voted him the fifth-best player in the entire league when NFL Network did a survey of NFL players for its annual “Top 100” list.
But the fact is, the Steelers’ offense has been just fine without Bell this season. Conner is actually on pace to finish this season with more rushing yards, more receiving yards and more touchdowns than Bell gained last year: Conner is on pace to finish this season with 1,369 rushing yards, 738 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns. Bell finished last season with 1,291 rushing yards, 655 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns.
So if Bell was one of the five best players in the entire league last year, does that mean Conner is one of the five best players in the league this year? With all due respect to Conner, no. What it means is that the running back position just isn’t as important in today’s NFL as people make it out to be. If you can lose an elite running back like Bell and not miss a beat when you plug in Conner to replace him, that should probably tell you that an elite running back like Bell just isn’t that important a player in a modern NFL offense.
Whether the Steelers are actually better without Bell is debatable. The Steelers obviously don’t think they are, or else they wouldn’t have put the $14.5 million franchise tag on him this season. But Martindale makes an important and correct point when he notes that the Steelers are, at the very least, not much worse without Bell than they were with him.

[Legacy User]

The only agenda Bell could possibly have at this point is to get on the field and show a brief glimpse of his capability. If anyone thinks he's going to play all out for six games, including shared touches with Conner, you're kidding yourself.

If Conner gets hurt, I will bet a Primanti Brothers sandwich that Bell pulls a hammy in practice. Once the "highlight" reel is made to confirm his capability, it's all going south from that point.

Bell simply needs to get credit for six games, on or off, and being injured protects his status.

Personally, I don't see how he pulls it off. He cannot be in football shape or speed at this point. I guess he could certainly be in great shape, but football speed and being in sync with the offense is unlikely right out of the gate. If he knows he's NOT going to be a total bad ass on the field, it's better for him to push to next year and hope the new team goes off his historical contributions.

Best case - he plays enough to show off.

Worse case - he never steps foot on the field, regardless of Conner healthy or not.

I'll take worse case.

[Kodiak]

If Conner gets hurt, I will bet a Primanti Brothers sandwich that Bell pulls a hammy in practice. Once the "highlight" reel is made to confirm his capability, it's all going south from that point.

That's the $6M question. I think if Bell finally signs, then he intends to perform and perform well. The scenario you're presenting would absolutely destroy his value - who would want to pay a guy like that $10M+ a year?

If he has any intention of faking an injury or tanking, then I can't imagine he'll sign at all. An injury would definitely hurt his contract value, since he's already been injured 3+ times. Or if he half-asses it, then you legitimately question his competitive fire and commitment to anything other than himself and money.

If the Steelers believe your scenario is at all likely, then the tag should already have been rescinded. If he does sign, I think he'll perform close to max effort....not that he won't protect himself more, but I think that's a completely different thing than tanking or half-ass. Still a level far superior to any backup on the roster, while probably not good enough to take many reps from Conner.

[Kodiak]

“There are a lot of stats [since 2015] that the Steelers are actually better without him,” Martindale said, via ESPN. “That might be why he’s riding a jet ski down in Miami right now.”

Not that this isn't true, it's just funny to see such a comment. Make sure everyone knows it, so Bell's market gets knocked down a few pegs into a range BAL might be willing to pay...

Certainly reading too much into it, but being such a highly unusual comment it perhaps illustrates how the league feels about tagged players holding out. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, happens with the tags in the next CBA.

Obviously some team is going to sign Bell (how much $$$ is anyone's guess).....but he may have blackballed himself, to some extent. In about 6 months, he's going to be thinking "man, I should have just taken that $14.5M this year and then walked away from the game".

[Legacy User]

The only agenda Bell could possibly have at this point is to get on the field and show a brief glimpse of his capability. If anyone thinks he's going to play all out for six games, including shared touches with Conner, you're kidding yourself.

If Conner gets hurt, I will bet a Primanti Brothers sandwich that Bell pulls a hammy in practice. Once the "highlight" reel is made to confirm his capability, it's all going south from that point.

Bell simply needs to get credit for six games, on or off, and being injured protects his status.

Personally, I don't see how he pulls it off. He cannot be in football shape or speed at this point. I guess he could certainly be in great shape, but football speed and being in sync with the offense is unlikely right out of the gate. If he knows he's NOT going to be a total bad ass on the field, it's better for him to push to next year and hope the new team goes off his historical contributions.

Best case - he plays enough to show off.

Worse case - he never steps foot on the field, regardless of Conner healthy or not.

I'll take worse case.

Right on all points. But I'll go you one further. There isn't any way possible that Bell can throw shade on Conner, short of Conner getting a case of the dropsies. If Bell is in the best shape of his ENTIRE life, and Conner rides the pine for an entire game, Bell isn't putting up 200 rushing yards and 100+ receiving. It's not possible. And short of doing that, he will have proved, beyond the shadow of a doubt, that no matter how amazing he is, he can't outshine a 3rd round, second year starter. And he will have proven the Steelers right in not giving him more than one year guaranteed. There is no upside to him playing. None. And what if he can't keep up with Conner? Not even a dumb team will offer him the money he dreams he's worth.

[Legacy User]

LOL, Conner named AFC offensive player of the month.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2 ... the-month/

[COR-TEN]

I simply don't get this. If somebody in the private sector pulled this stunt, they'd be fired instantly/ told to fuck off. Can you imagine blackmailing your employer for more money in the middle of a project? Then saunter in at the end and expect to get playing time to secure your next job? Seriously? He has not negotiated in good faith.

Does anybody actually think the steelers FO and coaching staff wants that selfish, toxic piece of shit anywhere near the team? Especially after what conner has done. All you need to do is remember the vids he posted acting arrogant and demanding to get "paid." He would have made $30M between the two tags. That's not enough guaranteed money? Dude has a warped sense of reality, but it doesn't surprise me. He's learned that over the last few years of his career. I'm sure other teams are watching. Kaepernick is still in street clothes, btw.

[Legacy User]

I simply don't get this. If somebody in the private sector pulled this stunt, they'd be fired instantly/ told to fuck off. Can you imagine blackmailing your employer for more money in the middle of a project? Then saunter in at the end and expect to get playing time to secure your next job? Seriously? He has not negotiated in good faith.

Does anybody actually think the steelers FO and coaching staff wants that selfish, toxic piece of shit anywhere near the team? Especially after what conner has done. All you need to do is remember the vids he posted acting arrogant and demanding to get "paid." He would have made $30M between the two tags. That's not enough guaranteed money? Dude has a warped sense of reality, but it doesn't surprise me. He's learned that over the last few years of his career. I'm sure other teams are watching. Kaepernick is still in street clothes, btw.

I sure as hell hope the FO feels the way you say. But as far as Kap goes, he's getting paid millions by Nike now, for being a mediocre qb and a douchebag. Our world is really fucked up.